Projection Stanford University researchers developed a microsimulation of type 2 diabetes management from 2018-2030 across 221 countries using data from the International Diabetes Federation.
The likely rise in the number of adults from 40.6 crore in 2018 to 50.11 crore in 2030, with highest number of adults with type 2 diabetes from China with 13 crore, India with 9.8 crore and the USA with 3.2 crore.
The study, which was led by Stanford University's Sanjay Basu, found that health care providers may see a 20-percent global increase in demand for insulin in order to effectively treat type 2 diabetics. Over half of them will be living in just three countries - China, India and the United States.
Insulin is essential for all people with type 1 diabetes and some people with type 2 diabetes to reduce the risk of complications such as blindness, amputation, kidney failure, and stroke, researchers said. If universal global access was achieved, 79 million people would be given insulin.
The findings suggested that the need of insulin will be highest in 2030 and will remain inaccessible to around 4 crore adults with type 2 diabetes if the access remains at current levels. Today, that figure nearly doubled at roughly 9% - and global population has also swollen by another three billion individuals.
A study published in the journal Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology, says access to insulin will fall well short of demand.
"Despite the UN's commitment to treat non-communicable diseases and ensure universal access to drugs for diabetes, across much of the world insulin is scarce and unnecessarily hard for patients to access", said Basu.
However, not all people with diabetes require insulin. However, half of them won't have access to an adequate supply of insulin, considering current trends. There will be an increase in the number of adults with Type 2 diabetes in the coming 12 years due to ageing, urbanization, and related substitutes in diet and physical activity.
Insulin, however, remains costly and prices can be especially out of reach in poorer countries, where tortuous supply chains and high markups by middlemen often make it unaffordable for many patients. Unless governments commence inventiveness to make insulin accessible and economical, then its application is going to be far from appropriate.