Forex - Sterling Tumbles on Dovish Bank of England Rate Hike

Forex - Sterling Tumbles on Dovish Bank of England Rate Hike

Forex - Sterling Tumbles on Dovish Bank of England Rate Hike

The Bank of England has raised the base rate from 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent.

Economists believe rates could hit 1% by the end of 2019 to bring inflation to target, although the timing and degree of further hikes are highly dependent on the economy and Brexit impact.

It said that it expected inflation to fall back over the next year based on a "gently rising path" of its key interest rate.

"The MPC is right to raise interest rates, even though economic growth has been relatively disappointing so far this year". JLL predicts that there will be steady, small rises up to 2.25% in its new property market forecast report.

Britain's economy has lagged behind others in Europe and beyond this year as sterling's plunge following last year's vote to leave the European Union pushes up inflation and uncertainty over the shape of Brexit causes businesses invest more slowly.

The immediate effect of a rates increase is on the disposable income of households.

Growth in the services sector outpaced that in the euro zone, as measured by a flash estimate, for the first time since January, the PMI showed.

Chris Urwin, head of global research, real estate at Aviva Investors, said: "Extremely expansive monetary policies across the world has been a major tailwind for real estate, including the United Kingdom market ..."

The key issue for home owners with mortgages will be looking ahead as to whether it is the start of subsequent increases in the years ahead, according to Sally Francis, money expert at MoneySuperMarket.

Although the rise may not have a major impact on commercial real estate, it will hit variable-rate mortgage owners across the United Kingdom and will likely be the first time many have experienced an increase in their mortgage payments. Neil Williams, group chief economist at Hermes Investment Management, thinks it is a one off.

'What it does is reverse the post-referendum cut from 15 months ago, which, with activity broadly holding up, may have been an unnecessary safety net, ' he added. He explained that an increase of 0.25% on a £150,000 standard variable mortgage at 4.5% over 25 years would see payments rise by more than £20 per month.

Reasons to increase the rate include inflation and record employment. The direction of travel for interest rates will have a bearing on future plans.

"In addition, the MPC faces a long-term challenge of raising interest rates back to some sort of normal level after an exceptional and unprecedented decade of low rates since the financial crisis".

According to Steven Cook, co-founder of the structured property finance team at Investec, many institutional investors will welcome the increase in the bank rate as an attempt to control inflation, now at 3 percent, in order to achieve the government's target of 2 percent by the end of its forecast period.

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