US negotiators have countered with a proposal that would effectively grant the other countries less access, people familiar with the talks say.
Although Trudeau officials were confident Trump would mostly target Mexico as the three nations started to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, Washington has slapped duties on Canadian Bombardier airliners and lumber exports in recent months and talked tough on dairy and wine.
Ending NAFTA, however, would result in a full reversion to tariffs under World Trade Organization rules, according to the Boston Consulting Group study sponsored by the Motor Equipment Manufacturers Association.
Vogel said US and Mexican businesses still believed NAFTA talks would produce a good deal and said they would continue to lobby their governments and lawmakers to negotiate a good deal.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he would be open to bilateral trade pacts with Mexico or Canada if a deal can not be reached to substantially revise NAFTA.
"With an agreement, in 10 years I see a strong region that can face Asia or China, without an agreement I see a weaker region in the medium and long term".
Andres Rozental, a former Mexican deputy foreign minister involved in the original NAFTA talks, said Ottawa had assumed traditionally close ties with the United States would insulate them from problems with NAFTA.
Despite rhetoric that the United States might pull out of the North American Free Trade Agreement, there will be substantial pressure from American businesses to forge a deal to remain, says NAFTA expert and Vanderbilt University professor Timothy Meyer.
Today, Prime Minister Trudeau arrives in Mexico for meetings with President Enrique Pena Nieto. "We have to protect our workers, and in all fairness, the prime minister wants to protect Canada and his people also". All the while, the president has continued threatening to withdraw the United States from the trade agreement.
The former House speaker and friend of the president says a deal will eventually be reached, after long and hard negotiations.
The rules of origin demands are among several conditions that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has labeled "poison pill proposals" that threaten to torpedo the talks.
Prior to sitting down with Trudeau, Trump said it would be fine if NAFTA was terminated, although members of Congress expressed hope earlier in the day it could be reworked. "It makes sense to modernize it", said Glenn Hamer, president and CEO of the Arizona Chamber of Commerce.
Finance Minister Bill Morneau, in Washington for meetings with G20 finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund, was confronted Thursday with several questions about a possible USA exit from NAFTA.
Oil prices have suffered from data released late Wednesday by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showing a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories and gained little from a report by the International Energy Agency, released Thursday, suggesting the global oil market will be in balance next year despite rising output. "We have always understood that draining the swamp would be controversial in Washington".